Weekly Newsletter

August 28th, 2025 QFB Weekly Newsletter

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,217 Bcf as of Friday, August 22, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 18 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 112 Bcf less than last year at this time and 154 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,063 Bcf. At 3,217 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

EIA Storage Report

EIA Storage Report Aug 28

 

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range

EIA 5 year August 28

 

Commentary

A Reuters survey of 12 analysts landed on a median build of 26 Bcf, while NGI’s model predicted a 27 Bcf increase. This compares to the year-ago injection of 35 Bcf and the five-year average addition of 38 Bcf for this time of year. NGI estimated LNG feed gas volumes at 15.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday, this is off the highs earlier in the year. U.S. production, meanwhile, has averaged 107.6 Bcf/d over the past week according to Wood Mackenzie estimates, up about 5.5 Bcf/d versus the same point last year. Weather demand is bearish.

Customer Takeaway

The September contract settles at $2.867; this is the lowest settlement price since November of 2024. The October contract is trading at $2.85. Weather demand seems to be the only factor moving the market in either direct. We will want to start taking natural gas off the market for winter over the next few weeks.

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