June 5th 2025 FI Newsletter

August 14th, 2025 QFB Weekly Newsletter

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,186 Bcf as of Friday, August 8, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 56 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 79 Bcf less than last year at this time and 196 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,990 Bcf. At 3,186 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

EIA Storage Report

EIA Storage August 14

 

Working Gas In Underground Storage Compared with 5-year Range

EIA 5 Year August 14th

 

Commentary

Build estimates submitted to Reuters for the week ended Aug. 8 ranged from 31 Bcf to 59 Bcf and landed at a median of 53 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey drew a median build of 54 Bcf from a range of 51 Bcf to 59 Bcf. At the high end of the ranges, NGI modeled a 59 Bcf addition. The estimates compare with a five-year average increase of 33 Bcf and yearearlier draw of 2 Bcf. Production remains strong at over 107 Bcf/Day.

Customer Takeaway

The September contract is trading at $2.83 after breaking through the $3.00 level earlier in the week. The next support levels are at $2.76. The surplus to the five year underground storage levels is at 6.6%. Driving the sell-off, cooler late August forecasts and strong production have lifted estimates for the pace of storage builds into the fall shoulder season. Weather models shed 17 cooling degree days (CDD) week/week to put August weather-driven demand on track to be the weakest for the month in eight years, according to EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin. “Power burns may drop 4 Bcf/d into the last third of August while tropical risks rise, ” Rubin said. Winter gas pricing is coming down and should provide opportunities for fixing rates in the fall.

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